ANNUAL REPORT 2019
According to a market and technology study on the global automotive industry conducted on behalf of Feintool, the automotive market will grow steadily worldwide over the medium and long term, even at different rates in the individual regions.
For example, well over 100 million vehicles are expected to be sold in 2030, and in all probability, more than 80% of them will still be equipped with an internal combustion engine and the associated drivetrain. With respect to the individual areas in the vehicle, however, trends will be very different. For example, technical solutions in conjunction with autonomous driving, safety, and therefore completely different requirements for the driver’s seat will drive new growth.
Trends in the drivetrain segment are viewed very differently, however (see figures). Driven by regulatory requirements that are increasingly converging globally, we expect a strong increase in battery electric vehicles and hybrids (2020: 8%/2030: 48%), while the internal combustion engine will lose market share.
While hybrid vehicles will only achieve an estimated market share of 7% worldwide in 2020, this figure is expected to increase to almost 35% by 2030 – taking into account overall growth, which is increasing anyway. If we look at the market solely in terms of transmission technologies, the trends related to drivetrains outlined above have resulted in significant growth for automatic transmissions, dual-clutch transmissions, and these in combination with electric motors (i.e. hybrid drive) and CVT (continuously variable transmissions).
According to the study, the manual transmission, which is still widely used in the EU and China in 2020 (with a market share of approximately 64% and 50%, respectively), will become increasingly less relevant by 2030 – simply because of the growth in autonomous vehicles and the hybrid engine – and will be the real loser as a result of the trends in the coming decade.
Since Feintool’s parts are widely used in the growing segment of automated transmissions, such as automatic transmissions, dual-clutch transmissions, and hybrid drives, the trend described above is expected to offer considerable growth potential for Feintool in the years leading up to 2030.
Viewed from a regional perspective, the mixture of drive systems in use will vary (as it already does today). Thanks to its strategic focus and presence in the respective regions, Feintool is perfectly positioned to take advantage of the market recovery and the market trends over the coming decade described in the study.
Source: Automotive components forecast & implications for Feintool (Boston Consulting Group, August 2019)